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 In order to constructively approach global climate change and the effects thereof we need sound scientific predictions of what the future may hold based on quality, comprehensive data. Such predictions can help us take steps toward living more responsibly, managing our resources more effectively and planning a more sustainable future for all living populations.
Predicting Changes in California
PRBO biologists are starting at a regional scale and developing tools that will help predict future climate scenarios in California. California and its constituent ecoregions support exceptional biodiversity and high levels of endemism due to its large size and diversity of habitats. Rapid human population growth is resulting in large-scale landscape changes throughout the west. Thus many California species and ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to future global climate changes, including increased temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, sea level rise, and resulting changes in human infrastructure and development. There are many ways to approach this challenging issue. Prioritzed lists, predictive models, comprehensive habitat plans, and early warning systems are PRBO's current projects. Research, data and ideas are shared among these projects to strengthen and inform each.
To read more about the tools PRBO is developing click on the links below.
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Bird Species of Future Concern
Lists of threatened species are an important tool for guiding policy and allocating resources. The most recent ranking of California’s Bird Species of Special Concern (BSSC) is a prioritized list that consists of 39 species and 24 subspecies. While this list is a valuable tool, it does not consider the threat of climate change when prioritizing species.
(pictured to the left are current bird species of special concern painted by Keith Hansen- click on the picture to learn more)
Climate change is projected to dramatically increase the rate of species extinctions (McLaughlin et al. 2002). Knowing which species are most at risk due to the predicted effects of climate change will help guide conservation policy and action.
PRBO biologists aim to prepare a report that predicts the impacts of climate change on both current BSSC taxa and those California bird species considered most sensitive to its effects but not yet at risk because current impacts are low. Such an analysis should serve as an early warning system to guide managers in adopting a longer-term approach to conservation.
Contact: Tom Gardali (415) 868-9363 x381 or tgardali at prbo dot org
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 Modeling Avian Distribution Responses to Climate Change in California
Species distribution modeling techniques, while limited by their inputs and assumptions, can take advantage of new sophisticated modeling algorithms and rapid computer processing speeds to generate predictions for multiple species over large areas under different future change scenarios. PRBO is uniquely situated to tap into a massive repository of bird species occurrence data generated from long-term monitoring, inventory, and research projects throughout the state.
The models that PRBO biologists are developing aim to first explain and display how vegetation, climate and land use shape current California bird distributions. Then, taking that knowledge gained, predicting how those distributions might change under different climate change scenarios. Our biologists will also determine which species, vegetation communities, and geographic areas are at highest risk from the combined effects of land use and climate change.
Contact: Diana Stralberg (707) 781-2555 x325 or dstralberg at prbo dot org
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 Climate Change Bird Conservation Plan for California
PRBO Biologists are integral members of the organization,California Partners in Flight (CalPIF), a voluntary, nonadvocacy, international coalition that was originally dedicated to reversing declines of Neotropical migratory songbirds, but soon expanded its mission to include all landbirds formed in 1990.
The current CalPIF habitat-based Bird Conservation Plans (BCPs) do not take climate change into account. Members are currently collaborating to devise a BCP that describes the current state of knowledge of climate change in California, current and future threats facing California’s habitats and bird populations due to climate change, identify information gaps in the above points, and lay out strategies to address and mitigate for climate change effects on California’s habitats and bird populations.
Contact: Chrissy Howell 707-781-2555 x315 or chowell at prbo dot org
Click [here] for information on the last CalPIF meeting!
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Early Warning System
Coming soon!
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