Species distributional modeling paper: Niches, models, and climate change: Assessing the assumptions and uncertainties.
In a recent paper published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, PRBO ecologists discuss the value and limitations of using statistical models to forecast future distributions of species given climate change. Species distribution modeling as the technique is labeled, can provide glimpses of probable futures for how birds may shift their distribution in the state of California. This view into the future helps guide conservation and resource management actions today. The paper outlines some limitations to these types of models, but, as the authors assert, the alternative of ignoring the future is no longer an option.
This paper is important contribution to understanding and projecting the impacts of climate change on birds, other wildlife species, and our ecosystems in a time of rapidly changing climate.
Predicting Changes in California’s Bird Communities Due to Climate Change
As much as half of California could be occupied by new bird communities by 2070 according to a new study by PRBO Conservation Science (PRBO) and partners. The publication entitled “Reshuffling of species with climate disruption: A no-analog future for California birds?” is to be released in the September 2 online issue of PLoS ONE.
As the climate changes, bird species are expected to shift their distributions independently, in some cases resulting in combinations of co-occurring species that have not been seen before. These novel (or “no-analog”) communities may disrupt complex webs of species interactions, with unanticipated consequences for species and ecosystems.
“We were surprised to see such a wide range of responses across the species we studied. We know that many species may shift their distributions in response to climate change, but these results suggest that the cumulative effect on community composition may be of equal or greater importance,” according to the study’s lead author, Diana Stralberg, PRBO Landscape Ecologist.
Researchers at PRBO Conservation Science, in collaboration with Stanford University, UC Santa Cruz, and the Klamath Bird Observatory, took advantage of a wealth of bird survey data and newly refined regional climate model projections for California to project current and potential future statewide distributions for 60 relatively common bird species. A few species, primarily those associated with coniferous forests, were projected to shift their distributions upslope in similar ways as the climate changes. But other species that often occur together were projected to shift in very different ways, resulting in novel species assemblages. Individual species maps may be viewed online at www.prbo.org/cadc (click on the “where will the birds be” banner on the front page).
Dr. John Wiens, PRBO’s Chief Conservation Science Officer and a co-author of the novel study said, “This is more than just an interesting finding about birds. Birds are nature’s barometers. If birds occur in different combinations in the future, it’s likely that other organisms such as insects and plants will as well. The reshuffling of bird assemblages that we project may just be the tip of the iceberg.”
Using PRBO’s science to project the effects of climate change on birds into the future has implications for how our ecosystems are conserved, managed and restored today. New and novel approaches will be needed to manage and conserve biodiversity. Single-species approaches will not work well in the context of rapidly-changing climate and ecological communities. Long-term ecological monitoring, flexible management strategies, and frequent communication between scientists, managers, and decision-makers will be needed more than ever.
Dr. Terry Root of Stanford University and another co-author of the publication explained, “We know climate disruption will result in major ecological surprises. This work provides yet another wake-up call to scientists, managers and the public struggling with managing biodiversity in the face of rapid environmental change.”
