Climate change is already causing shifts in the distributions of plant and animal species, creating an unprecedented challenge for the conservation and management of biodiversity. To meet this challenge, PRBO ecologists are using computer models to predict what the future may hold under various climate-change scenarios. [back to main climate change page]
Altered Bird Distributions
By combining extensive bird survey data with climate and vegetation projections for California, PRBO scientists estimated statewide distributions for scores of bird species by late this century. While some are projected to expand their ranges under future climate-change scenarios, the majority are expected to become less abundant.
PRBO scientists are also looking at impacts of future land use and development along with climate change affects to bird populations. A closer look at some of the “winners,” under future climate change scenarios, like the Nuttall’s Woodpecker (below), suggests that potential gains in habitat due to climate change may be lost to increased development resulting from human population growth.
Birds on the Go (audio and pictures from Pacific Coast Science and Learning Center podcast)
Climate change will affect bird species accross California. PRBO ecologist Diana Stralberg tries to predict where they’ll land.
>>Watch Video 5:23 minutes
Explore more maps...
[back to top]
Unfamiliar Neighbors
Based on these data-rich distribution models, PRBO scientists project that more than half of California could be occupied by new bird communities by 2070.
This dramatic change in bird community composition occurs because each species responds to climate change uniquely, shifting their distributions in different directions. As shown in the map below, these shifts are expected to produce novel species assemblages—combinations of species that are not seen today anywhere in California.
Publication: Stalberg et al. 2009. PLoS ONE. Sept.9
“Birds are nature’s barometers. If birds occur in different combinations in the future, it’s likely that other organisms such as insects and plants will as well. The reshuffling of bird assemblages that we project may just be the tip of the iceberg of major ecological changes in store for us all.” — Dr. John Wiens, PRBO Chief Conservation Science
Learn more...
[back to top]
Sea Level Rise
Climate change is causing sea levels to rise and driving saltier water inland, affecting the health of tidal wetlands such as the San Francisco Bay-Delta. Impacts are likely throughout the food web that could threaten birds, fish, and other wildlife, as well as reduce benefits to society such as flood control and filtering out pollutants.
Combining PRBO’s long term studies on birds and tidal habitats with partner expertise in salinity, sedimentation and inundation rates, we are identifying species and habitats of greatest concern to prioritize investments today that could yield the most for tidal habitats, wildlife and human communities in the future.
Learn more...
